Insights

Employment Outlook for 2010: Where have all the good people gone?

Published by Whattheythink.com January 15, 2010

In a recession, ambitious, proactive people don't just sit around and wait for a return to economic prosperity. Even if they aren't employed already or can't find work along their usual lines, they'll turn to some entirely different pursuit instead—responding to all the hype being circulated about working for yourself by choosing from among the multitude of support mechanisms and project, franchise, work-from-home or consulting options available. While some may be forced into it by circumstances, others will welcome the self-employment alternative as an avenue to change their career path – something they may have wanted to do for a while. And the most inventive ones may go on to even greater career success by launching novel innovations into the marketplace. In the past such enterprising spirits have been responsible for many of what have become today's mainstream products and services.

Witness that in the first half of 2009 alone, at least 36,000 Canadians became newly self-employed. Similar trends are also evident in Western Europe and the U.S.A (although to a lesser degree with Americans because of their lack of health care benefits among other factors.) Also attesting to the growth in self-employment is the escalating number of Internet sites and business communities for selling wares and services online and networking Web sites enabling freelancers to form business partnerships with each other (for example, a graphic designer can find a writer to help complete an advertising project.)

In a past article (see "Eight Steps to Prepare You for the Retirement Brain Drain" at: http://members.whattheythink.com/articles/article.cfm?id=2163) PrintLink already observed that, generally speaking, printing companies have been faced with a noticeable shortfall of employable people in the 40-to-55 age group. Perhaps this trend occurred in former times when early retirements, departure incentives, and cost-cutting layoffs reduced the ranks of people in middle-management-level positions. But now in the current economic downturn it has become even more likely that continuing layoffs will decimate this missing cohort still further, making it extra challenging now & into the more distant future for printing companies to fulfill their succession plans with competent and appropriately mature replacements when their senior executives retire.

Recently, too, the workforce is missing yet another age cohort: young people who are deciding to stay in school longer. Many of them are continuing with their schooling because they believe that post-secondary education is necessary for them to get ahead in life, while still others report that they have previously looked for work but couldn't find a job. For whichever reason, the Washington-DC-based Pew Reseach Centre's projections to 2016 show a decrease of 13% in the number of workers aged 16-24—a statistic that will likely also be reflected in printing companies' future workforce demographics and succession plans.

The mysterious rate of economic recovery

To complicate this year's employment picture still further, it is harder than usual to predict the economy's rate of recovery from the current recession and pinpoint when hiring will pick up again. One of the main reasons behind this uncertainty is that the present pattern of real consumption is atypical when contrasted with that of the three previous recessions (1981-82, 1990-91 and 2001.) Moneywatch.com states:

In every other recession, consumption returned to close to its pre-recession value no longer than 9 months after the recession started, and the time period was usually shorter than that (it was 9 months in the 90-91 recession, consumption was hardly affected in the 81-82 recession, and in 2001 consumption was almost back to its pre-recession value after 6 months, and above it after 8 months). In the present recession, consumption stayed relatively flat for 7 months, fell consistently for the next 6 months, stayed flat for a few months after that, and then began a slow increase in month 17. This increase has continued, more or less, through the end of October 2009. However, even though nearly two years has passed since the present recession began, consumption has not yet returned to its pre-recession level.

Moneywatch.com further states:

The drop in consumption has been larger and more sustained than in previous recessions. The drop in the 90-91 recession was nearly as large, but nowhere near as sustained as the present case.

The time period when sustained consumption growth begins after the recession varies by recession. In addition, it is generally only after consumption has been fairly close to its pre-recession value for one or more time periods, that sustained growth begins. It's not clear, however, that returning to the pre-recession value is required for robust consumption growth to return.

Owing to the above and other quandaries, it is practically impossible to predict at what point the economy will again achieve sustained consumption growth. When it does occur, however, and once companies begin to approach capacity and can project sustaining their business again, we can most assuredly expect that increased hiring will follow.

But will the jobs come back?

Certain jobs will indeed become available again--especially if their former elimination was intended only as a temporary cost-saving measure and also creates staffing shortfalls for executing the company’s strategic business plan.

But some jobs will never be resurrected again because of new strategic plans that have been formulated as a necessary response to changing economic conditions, such as:

• electing to become a more specialized service provider with smaller or different staff
• outsourcing various business or manufacturing functions

Other challenges ahead

Still other job functions are expected to alter drastically in response to the continuing evolution of the printing industry and the ever-changing requirements of its customers. Indeed, all signs point to the fact that, while the industry still retains its original mission to develop and deliver the vehicles to disseminate information, we clearly need to evolve the business models we use to support this mission—and we are. The one big difference between the past and the present climate of change is that today's changes are inextricably coupled with productivity measures, such as technology-supported workflow efficiencies that may ultimately render more job functions of the past obsolete or discourage some people from returning to the industry in its renovated form.

To replace such casualties in the workforce, we sincerely hope a compensating number of other job seekers will arise who see the industry as an exciting new career path or former workers will opt to return to it because they regard its recent innovations as an attractive challenge.

But in any case, in the outlook for employment in 2010, one of the few remaining certainties is that hiring, managing, and retaining staff will all become increasingly complex projects going forward.

Don't go it alone

PrintLink can help. Our specialized personnel service for the printing industry began in 1994, just at the juncture when hiring began to escalate robustly after the 1990-91 recession.

From its inception PrintLink was intended as a unique resource dedicated specifically to helping printing companies and their supply chain hire appropriately qualified employees. Then as now, all our managers are deeply knowledgeable about printing and its related technologies owing to their own prior substantial experience in the industry. Collectively, their careers span decades of proficiency in many diverse sectors of the business, including business ownership, production and operations management, estimating, customer service, document solutions, information technology, fulfillment, and sales. Employers appreciate our insight into the technical demands of the business as well as our acumen in helping them realize significant returns on their human-capital investments. We have continued to serve the industry through good times and bad – and we are here now to assist with the requirements for its future.

We know where the good people are and whether they have the passion and resilience to continue to overcome the industry's current demands and project your business forward. We can also help you assess when an infusion of expertise from other manufacturing and service sectors can give your business the new impetus it needs to propel it into a successful future. Our objective is to assist you with yours: to secure and retain top-performing staff, optimize their performance, and ensure their continuing relevance for the challenges of tomorrow.



PrintLink's articles explain the nuts and bolts of maximizing your human capital resources. Should you wish to receive a PDF file of this article, please contact vgaitskell@printlink.com.